Predicting Ecosystem Tipping Points

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impending disaster

Phys Org

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Science

A data-driven model to help avoid ecosystem collapse

Summary

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91% Informative

A new study by a team of researchers at the University of California , Santa Cruz , and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) introduces a method for modeling the murky future beyond a tipping point.

The paper, published in PNAS, demonstrates how this model can act as a "crystal ball" into the future of ecosystems.

By relying on historical trends in the data, rather than detailed understandings of individual species, this approach can be readily applied to a variety of ecosystems across the world.

Model could be used to predict how much reduction of phosphorus would be needed to restore Clear Lake .

Model can infer what the fluctuations would look like given conditions that were never explored in the original experiment.

Simulating unexplored scenarios can allow scientists to uncover new research questions that could inspire future studies.

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English

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