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Jeffrey Frankel: It is impossible to predict what lies ahead for the U.S. economy

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Summary
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78% Informative

Jeffrey Frankel : Some of the most popular indicators for forecasting recession suggest that the US may be headed toward a prolonged downturn.

But, given these indicators' limitations, it is impossible to know definitively what lies ahead.

Consumer confidence is a more direct indicator particularly for predicting household demand, he says.

"nowcasts" have emerged to provide real-time estimates of GDP based on the most up-to-date relevant indicators, such as the PMI , industrial production, and retail sales.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, fell off a cliff at the end of February , from above +2% to below -2%.

China has stopped importing liquefied natural gas from the U.S. , shipping data shows.

The odds of a US recession as high as 60% for the coming year in line with prediction markets.

Fort Bliss , a major U.S. Army base in Texas , may soon be used to detain migrants, says border czar Tom Homan .

Iran is looking to build on momentum of nuclear negotiations with the United States that resumed in Oman on Saturday and after talks with Russia and China last week .

Power and cell phone outages struck across the Iberian Peninsula and other portions of Europe Monday , with disruptions reported in Spain , Portugal , Belgium , Andorra , and France .

VR Score

80

Informative language

84

Neutral language

48

Article tone

formal

Language

English

Language complexity

57

Offensive language

not offensive

Hate speech

not hateful

Attention-grabbing headline

detected

Known propaganda techniques

not detected

Time-value

short-lived

External references

53

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iya.net/News/world/2025/04/28/pakistan-defense-minister-says-a-military-incursion-by-india-is-imminent?ref=tippinsights.comhttps://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/is-the-michigan-economic-sentiment-index-at-recession-levels-answer-yes?ref=tippinsights.comhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3308232/us-farmers-loss-brazils-gain-china-diversifies-soybean-imports?ref=tippinsights.com

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