Turkey and Trump’s Balance-of-Power Instincts

Donald Trump avoided the phrase “ Armenian genocide” in what might be considered an olive branch towards a renewed bilateral relationship with a changed Turkey .

Rarely in international relations do we get to see a former great power reverse long-term decline and gain influence at such an accelerated pace.

Trump instinctively seems to recognize that reality, and has quietly preferred a new equilibrium in the region.

Turkey is too big and too important geographically to keep out of European balance.

Trump understands that “ Europe ,” despite decades of supranational narrative building, is not a singular coherent political and strategic entity bound by one culture and language.

The chances are that, without the Pax Americana, the EU will split along the standard historic divisions.

The ancients, both Thucydides and Kautilya , would perhaps approve of this realism.